The country had recorded a rainfall of 97 per cent in 2016 and 98 per cent a year ago during the season, which runs from June to September.
A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy.
Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 per cent.
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"The forecast suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 97 per cent", IMD Director General K.J. Ramesh said at press conference here.
Rainfall is likely to be normal during the June-to-September south-west monsoon season, the government's weather office said on Monday. Monsoon is considered to be normal when rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average. Monsoon rains is the lifeblood for India's farm-dependent 2 trillion dollar economy.
The IMD, meanwhile, said it would be able to forecast a clearer picture of the Monsoon, which normally extends from June 1 to September 30, only in June. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts.
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India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages.
However, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions.
"India will receive normal monsoon this year". Unlike the IMD, Skymet had predicted a 100 per cent normal Monsoon, with an error estimate of plus-minus 5 per cent.
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I've never been able to retain the title and want to see if this team has got it to carry on and be even more successful". He also conceded it was sweet to triumph in a country where some critics claimed his purist principles couldn't flourish.
The rains after making a steady start in June and July, went for an extended break in August and also till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall.
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