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CPI data due Tuesday

14 March 2018

India's industrial output grew 7.5 percent in January from a year earlier, government data showed on Monday.

Bloomberg Economics estimates the consumer price index rose 4.54% year on year, down from a 5.07% rise in January. We have also noted price increases across some major food items during our food survey in the month.

Government data on Monday showed inflation at 4.44% in February, lower than the 5.07% pace in January.

As manufacturing picked up pace, India's factory production growth in January at 7.5 per cent doubled over the 3.5 recorded in the same month past year, even as retail inflation eased in February, official data showed on Monday. "Gradual monetary policy normalization is set to continue, bringing higher long-term interest rates, as the labor market tightens further and wage growth and inflationary pressures pick up".

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JPMorgan said that softening of inflation was nearly entirely underpinned by food prices. It expects gross value added - a key measure of growth - to increase 7.2 percent next fiscal year from 6.6 percent this year.

The cumulative growth in the above mentioned three sectors during April-January 2017-18 over the corresponding period of 2016-17 has been 2.5%, 4.3% and 5.3% respectively. Manufacturing alone constitutes 77.63 per cent of the index.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018 /02:01 PM/ Meristem ResearchInflation rate eased to 15.37% YoY in January 2018, 0.24% higher than our forecast of 14.89%. Both headline and core prices rose an on-trend 0.2% in February, with the 2.2% headline rate for the last 12 months, and the 1.8% core, both matching consensus. Primary goods saw growth accelerating to 5.8% in January from 3.73% in December.

US consumer prices increased marginally in February amid a decline in gasoline prices and a moderation in the cost of rental accommodation, the latest indication that an anticipated pickup in inflation likely will be only gradual.

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Central bankers were baffled for much of a year ago by the weakness of price pressures in the face of the continuing recovery. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.2%.

Last month's increase in consumer prices was in line with economists' expectations.

Fuel and light inflation has seen increase of 6.80%.

February's Consumer Price Index data is due out Tuesday at 7:30 am CT.

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Gas prices and the cost of hospital services declined, but apparel prices and auto insurance rates spiked, which ticked the overall rate higher, Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic noted.

CPI data due Tuesday