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Chinese space station might fall on Thailand which has a 0.1% probability

10 March 2018

The Corporation's experts note that the station module weighing 8.5 tons, not likely to burn up while passing through the atmosphere, and its debris will fall to earth within a radius of several hundred kilometers.

The Tiangong-1 station will mostly burn up as it plummets through Earth's atmosphere.

"There is a chance that a small amount of Tiangong-1 debris may survive reentry and impact the ground", Aerospace reports.

The California-based Aerospace Corporation, a non-profit group that works with the U.S. government, said Tiangong-1's re-entry was unlikely to be controlled but it was highly unlikely to hit people or damage property, according to a post on its website last updated on Jan 3. "Only one person has ever been recorded as being hit by a piece of space debris and, fortunately, she was not injured".

Aerospace Corp has also issued its own forecast over the likelihood of being hit by falling debris.

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"It's challenging to predict the time of reentry, and even more challenging to get the location", Abraham said.

Exactly where it will hit is slightly harder to predict, although experts agree it will be somewhere between latitudes of 43° north and 43° south. ESA has been tracking the descent of China's first space station on which, the ground command lost control in 2016.

Tiangong-1 is now at an altitude of 150 miles and is the focus of multiple space agencies looking to predict when and where it will crash.

Researchers won't be able to determine with any reliability the ground track - the path along which debris could fall - until roughly a day or two before the satellite falls, Ailor said.

The doomed 8.5-tonne craft, which has been hurtling towards Earth since control was lost in 2016, is believed to contain risky hydrazine.

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Tiangong-1, known as the "Heavenly Palace", originally launched in September 2011 and was viewed as a major step for the space agency in its quest to build a space station by 2020.

An out-of-control Chinese space station is going to come crashing down to Earth soon, and Pennsylvania is among the areas where debris could potentially land.

Now it's predicted to reenter into Earth's atmosphere.

Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist from Harvard University and space industry enthusiast, told The Guardian: "Every couple of years something like this happens, but Tiangong-1 is big and dense so we need to keep an eye on it". We know that the space station is coming down, we just don't know when or where. There may be hazardous material on board that could survive re-entry, it said.

The eight-tonne Tiangong-1 space station is now at an altitude of 150 miles, and can not be steered towards the ocean as is normal with large spacecraft re-entering the atmosphere.

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In any case, he said, his agency was coordinating closely with global peers and they have asked China how much hydrazine was left in the spacecraft.

Chinese space station might fall on Thailand which has a 0.1% probability