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US Oil Output Will Hit 11 MMBOPD in 2019

13 January 2018

Despite the rising production, oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, with US crude touching its highest since December 2014, closing at $62.96 a barrel. The global supply of oil exceeded demand by as many as 2 million barrels per day and inventories swelled. "As per the International Energy Agency's latest data USA production has been averaging 9.6 million barrels per day", the report said.

“EIA forecasts USA crude oil production to grow by 980,000 barrels per day in 2018, and we expect most of that growth to come from tight rock formations in Texas and North Dakota, ” he said.

OPEC crude oil production is forecast to increase by 0.2 MMBPD in 2018, partially reflecting the Energy Information Administration's expectation of Libya maintaining relatively high production levels achieved near the end of 2017, according to EIA's just-released Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

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Crude oil prices dipped into negative territory on Friday on signs Washington would indeed extend waivers that let Iranian oil flow on the global market.

The market was supported by OPEC-led production cuts and expectations that USA crude inventories have dropped for an eighth week. This year also started with the OPEC vs. shale tug-of-war, although in the first two weeks of 2018, geopolitical risks and declining inventories trumped concerns over the rise in US shale, and supported oil prices and sent Brent briefly breaking above $70 a barrel on Thursday.

The price upturn began in June previous year, and now prices are nearing levels from late 2014. Average WTI crude oil prices are forecast to stay between $4/b and $5/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019, falling from the $6/b average price difference seen in the fourth quarter of 2017.

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USA demand growth of 150,000 bpd was estimated for 2017, slightly lower than previous expectations. That will be the first time production has reached that level since 1970.

Production from the Permian is expected to be 3.6 million bpd by the end of 2019, an increase of roughly 900,000 bpd from December 2017, and 32 percent of USA crude oil production in 2019. In 2019, crude oil production is forecast to rise to an average of 10.8 million b/d. The Saudi state oil company is expected to debut this year.

The Energy Information Admin is out with its USA inventories report at 10:30 am ET. Non-hydropower renewables provided nearly 10% of electricity generation in 2017, and its 2018 share is expected be similar before increasing to nearly 11% in 2019.

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US Oil Output Will Hit 11 MMBOPD in 2019